Vehicle Fleet Trends and Non-linear Ownership Elasticity in Bolivia, 2000-2035

digital

Article

Magazine

RIVISTA INTERNAZIONALE DI SCIENZE SOCIALI

Issue

RIVISTA INTERNAZIONALE DI SCIENZE SOCIALI - 2023 - 4

Title

Vehicle Fleet Trends and Non-linear Ownership Elasticity in Bolivia, 2000-2035

Authors

Javier Aliaga Lordemann, Andrés Escobar Espinoza, Alejandra Teran Orsini

Publisher

Vita e Pensiero

Format

Article |

Pdf

Pages

Online from

11-2023

Doi

10.26350/000518_000124

Issn

0035-676X (print) | 1827-7918 (digital)

€ 6.00

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Description

This paper analyses the evolution of the Bolivian vehicle stock in the medium term, as well as policy implications. First, we analyse the relationship between income and vehicle ownership in Bolivia during the 1970-2017 period, using robust econometric techniques. Based on these results, we use an energy-mix accounting model in GAMS to analyse how the vehicle fleet and the associated demand for gasoline, natural gas and diesel oil evolved over time. Our results show that the relationship between vehicle ownership and per capita income is highly non-linear, with a strong increase in the vehicle fleet over the last decade. Without an energy policy or any energy-efficiency measures for the transport sector, the consumption of derivatives is expected to increase by 6.9 times and the total emissions of CO2eq are expected increase by 7.93 times in the 2000-2035 period.

keywords

car ownership, integrated energy-transport modelling, energy-mix, emissions

Authors biography

Javier Aliaga Lordemann, is a Full Fellow Member at ABCE and Senior Associate Researcher at INESAD. E-mail: jaliaga@inesad.edu.bo.
Alejandra Teran Orsini is a Junior Researcher at INESAD. E-mail: alejandrateranorsini@gmail.com.
Andrès Escobar is Associate Professor of Economics at Universidad de Cartagena (Colombia) and a researcher in the Economics, Science & Society Research Group at the same institution, as well as a Fellow Member at the Bolivian Academy of Economic Sciences (ABCE). E-mail: aescobare@unicartagena.edu.co.