Stochastic Epidemic Modeling with Application
to the Sars-Cov-2 Pandemic in Italy
| RIVISTA INTERNAZIONALE DI SCIENZE SOCIALI - 2021 - 1
The Sars-Cov-2 pandemic certainly represents an unprecedented challenge not only for medical researchers fighting against its worldwide diffusion but also for statisticians involved in proposing models to estimate the crucial epidemic parameters and monitor and control its future evolution. The traditional epidemiological SIR model (Brauer, Castillo-Chavez and Feng, 2019) is usually specified in a deterministic way and fitted to empirical data by numerical optimization, neglecting the error component’s role so that its performances cannot be statistically tested...