After commenting on the main lessons and messages stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic, the essay focuses on the two main ways-out from the crisis: on the one hand, the so-called flood model, on the other hand, the transformative resilience model. The thesis here defended is that what is needed, in the present socio-economic conditions, is the second one. To this end, the most urgent strategies to be pursued are presented and briefly discussed. The paper ends with a critical examination of the two major ethical dilemmas generated by the pandemic.
The Sars-Cov-2 pandemic certainly represents an unprecedented challenge not only for medical researchers fighting against its worldwide diffusion but also for statisticians involved in proposing models to estimate the crucial epidemic parameters and monitor and control its future evolution. The traditional epidemiological SIR model (Brauer, Castillo-Chavez and Feng, 2019) is usually specified in a deterministic way and fitted to empirical data by numerical optimization, neglecting the error component’s role so that its performances cannot be statistically tested. This paper introduces uncertainty explicitly in the estimation process (Bailey, 1955; Kendall, 1956). We start providing a finite difference representation of the model. We then introduce stochastic components in the model in the form of a measurement error and a random error. We finally apply the model to the case of the Italian 2020-2021 Sars-Cov-2 pandemic diffusion showing its relative advantages with respect to the deterministic specification.
The SURE program aimed to help member countries fund domestic measures to tackle the socio-economic effects of the pandemics. Unlike other programs, it received immediate compliance from the recipient countries and smooth approval by the lending ones. The focus on a low conditionality, respectful of national choices, helped ease the political conflict within the receiving countries where large parts of public opinion feared sovereignty loss. Furthermore, the mechanism of a direct loan between the Union and the single Member State made it possible to cope with the mistrust against a supposed prodigal attitude of the receiving countries.
Juvenile problematic gambling is associated with relevant personal, social, and healthcare costs that may be decreased only by gaining a complete understanding of the multi-faced factors impacting this disorder to implement tailored and efficacious interventions to contrast it. The present contribution, using a sample of 1,160 high secondary school students, investigates, among a group of personal and relational factors, namely the ways of employing one’s own spare time, those that may increase/decrease the chance of becoming a gambler and, once a gambler, those that may increase/decrease the chance of turning into a problematic one. The results obtained enrich the existing literature, not always unanimous in the evidence offered concerning the relation between structured/unstructured activities and gambling attitudes. It may help address problematic juvenile gambling, a relevant public health concern, using a multidimensional headset, acknowledging individual and societal drivers.